Group winners automatically qualify
for the finals; the eight best runners-up go into two-legged playoffs.
Group A
Marc Wilmots should guide his
Belgium team to Brazil over the next two games.
Marc Wilmots' Belgium are on the
verge of their first World Cup finals since 2002, leading Croatia by five
points with two games left to play. The two nations meet in Zagreb on Friday,
when a draw will take the lowlands nation to Brazil. Croatia's only hope is to
beat Belgium, and win in Scotland on Tuesday, then hope Belgium fail to win at
home to Wales.
Belgium are assured of one of the
eight playoff spots in the unlikely event they finish second.
Group B
ITALY became the second European
team to qualify last month, leaving only second place to fight for.
Four nations might mathematically be
in with a chance of second place, but it is surely a two-horse race with
Bulgaria in pole position -- though as it stands they would be the unlucky
runners-up to miss out on the playoffs.
Bulgaria have a one-point cushion
over Denmark, so wins in Armenia and at home to Czech Republic would guarantee
second spot. And they may well need to win both matches to have enough points
for one of the eight playoff places.
Goal difference means the Danes must
pick up two more points than Bulgaria, and they are at home to Italy on Friday
and bottom team Malta on Tuesday. They could still finish second with just
three points against Malta, though that would almost certainly not be enough
points to be one of the top-eight runners-up. Victory at home to Italy may
therefore be crucial if they are to realistically be in with a chance of going
to Brazil.
Czech Republic and Armenia are on
nine points, four behind Bulgaria, meaning their hopes are slim. Even if the
Czechs win at home to Malta and in Bulgaria, and Bulgaria fail to beat Armenia,
they will still likely to miss out on the playoffs as the worst runner-up.
Armenia have slightly more hope --
purely because they lost at home to Malta which means fewer points are deducted
from their total to calculate the best second-placed teams. However, even if
they win at home to Bulgaria, their last match is away in Italy. The only way
they are then likely to finish second is by winning in Naples with Bulgaria
drawing with the Czechs. Even in that eventuality, the fact that Denmark play
Malta means the Danes may still finish above Armenia on goal difference with
the two teams on 15 points.
A lot will become clearer after
Friday's games, though the odds are stacked against any nation from this group
making the playoffs.
Group C
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Austria travel to the Friends Arena
knowing they must avoid defeat in Sweden to stay in contention. In fact if
Austria win in Stockholm they are almost sure to finish second in the group, as
they will be ahead of the Swedes on goal difference with only Faroe Islands
left to play.
A draw between the two nations would
leave it tight. Sweden would then need a point at home to Germany on Tuesday to
secure second, but defeat would allow Austria to almost certainly climb above
them.
Republic of Ireland may not be
mathematically out of the running but in truth they have no hope. They would
have to win in Germany and at home to Kazakhstan, plus hope Austria win in
Sweden -- then Austria lose in Faroe Islands and Sweden be defeated by Germany.
Oh, and they would also need a goal-difference swing of around eight.
Germany are assured of one of the
eight playoff spots if they do not finish top.
Group D
NETHERLANDS were the first nation to
qualify from Europe, and there is a three-team battle for second with Hungary
currently a point ahead of Turkey and Romania.
Hungary have their destiny in their
own hands and will definitely be in the playoffs should they win in the
Netherlands and at home to Andorra. The latter fixture gives them hope, as
Andorra have not scored a single goal or point in the qualifying programme.
Hungary are effectively guaranteed to finish on a minimum of 17 points, but the
trip to Netherlands is the worst fixture they could wish to have.
Turkey are currently third and
travel to Estonia -- by no means a straightforward fixture -- before they are
at home to Netherlands. Fatih Terim's team will surely have to win in Estonia
to give themselves a realistic chance and hope Hungary have not shocked
Netherlands.
The above means Romania could
actually be seen as slight favourites as they go to Andorra and entertain
Estonia. They have every chance of winning both games and 19 points could be
enough to sneak into the playoffs.
Group E
SWITZERLAND are on the brink of the
finals, needing two points from an away game in Albania and a home date with
Slovenia to be absolutely sure.
The only nation who can pip them to
the finals in any realistic mathematical equation is Iceland, who would have to
win both games with the Swiss recording two blanks.
Switzerland will also qualify with a
draw on Friday if Iceland lose. And they would also be through with a defeat if
both Iceland and Norway fail to win too.
The battle for second is a titanic
four-team affair with Iceland (13 points), Slovenia (12), Norway (11) and
Albania (10) still in contention.
Iceland will be in the playoffs with
a chance of being at a major tournament for the first time in their history if
they win at home to Cyprus and away to Norway.
Slovenia and Norway meet on Friday,
and if Iceland do beat Cyprus we are sure to lose one of the former two nations
before Tuesday. Norway would be knocked out if they fail to win in Maribor,
while a draw would also leave Slovenia having to win away in Switzerland on
Tuesday with Norway beating Iceland that night too. But if Slovenia can win,
they will put crucial pressure on Iceland and, if Iceland then lose to Norway,
Slovenia could take second with a draw in Switzerland.
As noted above, it is likely Norway
will have to win away to Slovenia to remain in the running, but if they do that
they would then entertain Iceland on Tuesday in a last-day shootout -- which
Norway would have to win to take second place. Iceland would be through if they
avoided defeat.
The outsiders are Albania, who must
win at home to Switzerland and in Cyprus to finish on 16 points. A combination
of results could see them finish second on goal difference, but first of all we
need to see if they can win at home to Switzerland.
Group F
RUSSIA are a point above Portugal
with two games left to play. Russia's final two games are away in Azerbaijan
and Luxembourg, which makes them overwhelming favourites to take the automatic
spot. Portugal entertain Israel and Luxembourg and must win both, while hoping
that Russia somehow also slip up.
Russia will qualify on Friday if
they win and Portugal lose.
Israel still have a mathematical
chance of qualifying, more so of second place, but in reality their campaign is
over. They would have to win away in Portugal and at home to Northern Ireland,
and hope Portugal pick up no more than a point at home to Luxembourg.
Group G
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA and Greece remain
separated purely by goal difference going into the last two rounds.
As Bosnia's goal difference is 15
goals superior, they know a regulation win at home to Liechtenstein followed by
a victory away in Lithuania will send them to their maiden finals. Greece must
win at home to Slovakia and Liechtenstein and hope Bosnia are tripped up.
Group H
Wayne Rooney will have the weight of
a nation on his shoulders as England try to make it to Brazil.
ENGLAND are in control of their own
destiny, one point ahead of Ukraine and Montenegro and three points clear of
fourth-placed Poland. England are on 16 points, but Ukraine will likely get a
minimum of 18 points as they have yet to play San Marino.
England's final two games are at
home to Montenegro and Poland and England will be assured of a place in Brazil
with two wins. If Ukraine and Poland draw on Friday, then England would be in a
very strong position with a win that same night - three points and at least
eight goals better off than Ukraine although their rivals do have that game
against San Marino on Tuesday. If Ukraine fail to beat Poland, England are
guaranteed to need no more than four points to finish top.
However, if Ukraine win at home to
Poland -- they kick off an hour earlier than England on Friday -- it makes the
group very interesting. Anything less than a win for England over Montenegro
would then mean Roy Hodgson's team could realistically finish only second at
best. And the San Marino-Ukraine game effectively means that if Ukraine do beat
Poland, then England will have to win both matches to qualify automatically.
Due to Ukraine playing San Marino
and their already superior goal difference, Montenegro have to get at least a
point at Wembley to stay in contention. But if Ukraine at least draw against
Poland, then Montenegro will have to win in London with Ukraine therefore set
for a minimum of 19 points with better goal difference. Montenegro finish their
campaign at home to Moldova.
Poland are the outsiders, and will
have to win away in both Ukraine and England. That would give them 19 points
and also first place if England have failed to beat Montenegro. But the first
task is to win in Ukraine, as anything other than a win is not going to be enough.
Group I
FRANCE are level on 14 points with
Spain but the world champions have a game in hand, and finish their campaign at
home to Belarus and Georgia. Spain cannot officially book their place until the
final day, but France are headed for the playoffs once again. France's final
game is at home to Finland on Tuesday.
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